#AceNewsReport – Nov.21: They certainly kept US busy and now Glasgow is over, and we hope you’ve had a bit of time to recover. We thought we’d send out a summary of the work we’ve done over the past few weeks.
#AceDailyNews CAT’s Glasgow #ClimateChange Summary Report: First, just ahead of COP26, on 28 October we released, with a number of partners, the State of the Climate Action report for 2021, that identifies 40 indicators across key sectors that must transform to address the climate crisis, and assesses how current trends will impact how much work remains to be done by 2030 and 2050 to deliver a zero-carbon world in time.
The news wasn’t great, but there are some areas showing good signs.
There was a buzz of excitement when India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India would aim for net zero by 2070, along with a new set of targets. We saw China and the US submit their Long Term Strategies (LTS). We rated the US net zero target as “average” and that of China as “poor”.
We got to work and assessed India’s new target. At most, it will only drive minor reductions in real world emissions as the country is already on a pathway to more than meet most of its targets. Without any further details, we couldn’t assess the net zero target, so have rated it “target information incomplete.” . Shortly before COP, we assessed green recovery for India. We identified India’s substantial potential to reduce national emissions through reducing coal use and scaling up renewable energy by 2030 with benefits to its economy and health. However, to achieve this and even further emissions reductions, India would need significant external support.
There were other, last-minute NDC updates, such as that from New Zealand, which managed an extraordinary feat of creative accounting that transformed a 22% reduction by 2030 into 50%, and Australia who refused to increase their 2030 target at all, instead opting for a net zero target that turns out not to reach net zero at all.
Toward the end of the first week of Glasgow, the IEA released it assessment of all net zero targets, arguing that they would bring global warming down to 1.8˚C. But just how real was that assessment?
We set the record straight on Tuesday 9 November when we released our global update, bringing the hype back to reality: without strong near-term 2030 targets, we won’t make it to net zero. Glasgow, we argued, has a credibility gap: if all governments achieved their current 2030 pledges, we’ll get 2.4˚C of warming by 2100, and if nobody did anything more than what they’re doing today (our policies & action pathway), we’re heading to 2.7˚C.
While yes, we, too, got the 1.8˚C under our “optimistic” scenario, it is indeed just that: highly optimistic, and no reason for complacency. See the full update here. We also wrote an article for The Guardian summarising our findings.
#AceNewsDesk report …………….Published: Nov.21: 2021:
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