#UKWeatherNews : ” Global Perspective on Storms and Floods According to Met office”

#AceWeatherNews says `Global Perspective on the Recent Storms and Floods in the UK

Strong winds and high tides batter the coastal road close to Newtownards, Northern IrelandFebruary 2014 – This winter the UK has been affected very severely by an exceptional run of winter storms, culminating in serious coastal damage and widespread, persistent flooding. This paper documents the record-breaking weather and flooding, considers the potential drivers and discusses whether climate change contributed to the severity of the weather and its impacts.

This series of winter storms has been exceptional in its duration, and has led to the wettest December to January period in the UK since records began. Heavy rains combined with strong winds and high waves led to widespread flooding and coastal damage, causing significant disruption to individuals, businesses and infrastructure.

The severe weather in the UK coincided with exceptionally cold weather in Canada and the USA. These extreme weather events on both sides of the Atlantic were linked to a persistent pattern of perturbations to the jet stream, over the Pacific Ocean and North America.

The major changes in the Pacific jet stream were driven by a persistent pattern of enhanced rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific associated with higher than normal ocean temperatures in that region. The North Atlantic jet stream has also been unusually strong; this can be linked to exceptional wind patterns in the stratosphere with a very intense polar vortex.

As yet, there is no definitive answer on the possible contribution of climate change to the recent storminess, rainfall amounts and the consequent flooding. This is in part due to the highly variable nature of UK weather and climate.

Nevertheless, recent studies have suggested an increase in the intensity of Atlantic storms that take a more southerly track, typical of this winter’s extreme weather. There is also an increasing body of evidence that shows that extreme daily rainfall rates are becoming more intense, and that the rate of increase is consistent with what is expected from the fundamental physics of a warming world.

More research is urgently needed to deliver robust detection of changes in storminess and daily/hourly rain rates and this is an area of active research in the Met Office.

The attribution of these changes to anthropogenic global warming requires climate models of sufficient resolution to capture storms and their associated rainfall. Such models are now becoming available and should be deployed as soon as possible to provide a solid evidence base for future investments in flood and coastal defences.

Report on the recent storms and floods in the UK, February 2014 Download a briefing report on the recent storms and floods in the UK (PDF, 3 MB)

Last updated: 7 February 2014 

 

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” Worst Storm Heading Towards `United Kingdom’ Since the `Great Storm’ of 1987″

#AceWeatherNews says `Stormpocalypse: Worst storm ‘in quarter of a century’ heading for UK

Published time: February 08, 2014 19:05
 
People look on as high waves strike the harbour wall at Porthcawl, south Wales on February 8 2014. (AFP Photo / Geoff Caddick)People look on as high waves strike the harbour wall at Porthcawl, south Wales on February 8 2014. (AFP Photo / Geoff Caddick)
Britain is readying itself for a historic storm set to batter its coast this weekend, with warnings of strong gales and enormous waves. The centre of approaching ‘Mega Storm Charlie’ is more intense than the Great Storm of 1987, meteorologists say.

“Gales across England and Wales, severe across southwest and southern coasts” are anticipated as early as Saturday night, according to the Met Office. Winds of up to 80mph have been detected, accompanied by up to 1.6 inches (40mm) of rain. The rain is expected to batter the UK for six hours.

A new house is pictured with a barrier around it protecting it from flood waters in Moorland, some 19 Kms Northeast of Taunton on February 7, 2014 (AFP Photo / Justin Talli)A new house is pictured with a barrier around it protecting it from flood waters in Moorland, some 19 Kms Northeast of Taunton on February 7, 2014 (AFP Photo / Justin Talli)

Superstorm Charlie is currently measuring at an even lower pressure than the 1987 storm, which was caused by a deep low of 951 millibars. Charlie is registering 948 millibars – even lower.

The storm is expected to hurl itself onto the UK at roughly 2000 GMT and last through the night until Sunday morning. Coastal regions are preparing for 100mph gales. Severe weather warnings have been issued by the Met Office for the UK.

Flood warnings are in place for large areas of Britain. Waves of up to 50 feet could batter the already drenched Cornish coast, according to weather forecasters on magicseaweed.com. The intense weather conditions are likely to continue to pile more pressure on the already disrupted travel and power networks.

A deluge of torrential rain and hurricane-force winds will smash into Britain (Image from magicseaweed.com)

A deluge of torrential rain and hurricane-force winds will smash into Britain (Image from magicseaweed.com)

Some 1,500 troops have been put on six hours’ notice by the Ministry of Defence, in case they are needed to come to the rescue of victims of the floods, according to a spokesperson. 

Hundreds of Royal Marines have already been deployed to the southwest of the country, along with army engineers, to help secure an important stretch of rail that has already been destroyed by the storms.

The Environment Agency has warned of a “significant risk” of flooding on the coasts of Devon, Devonshire, Cornwall, and southwest England, with the issued warnings spreading as far north as Hull. Two “severe” flood warnings have been issued, meaning that the weather could be life threatening in affected areas.

January was already the wettest on record that Britain had experienced.

Environment agency workers take a ride on the side of a Land Rover as they travel through flood waters in Moorland, 19 Kms northeast of Taunton on February 7, 2014. (AFP Photo / Justin Tallis)Environment agency workers take a ride on the side of a Land Rover as they travel through flood waters in Moorland, 19 Kms northeast of Taunton on February 7, 2014. (AFP Photo / Justin Tallis)

Conservative MP for Bridgwater and West Somerset, Ian Liddell-Grainger, told the BBC that river levels in his constituency are still “enormously high,” while being heavily critical of the Environment Agency for not dredging the area.

“We have been let down by London,” he said. On the ground they [Environment Agency staff] are working hard. Up in London I do not know what they are doing,” he said.

However, the Environment Agency was resisting the demands of both MPs and farmers to dredge the area.

 “Dredging is often not the best long-term or economic solution and increased dredging of rivers on the Somerset Levels would not have prevented the recent widespread flooding,” Environment Secretary Owen Paterson stated recently.

UK Prime Minister David Cameron overruled him and ordered the Environment Agency to step away from its opposition to the expensive practice.

British Royal Marines help lay sandbags around a home threatened by floodwaters during flood relief operations in Moorland, some 19 Kms Northeast of Taunton on February 7, 2014. (AFP Photo / Justin Tallis)

British Royal Marines help lay sandbags around a home threatened by floodwaters during flood relief operations in Moorland, some 19 Kms Northeast of Taunton on February 7, 2014. (AFP Photo / Justin Tallis)

Belongings are seen, piled up in a outhouse which has been surrounded by flood water in Moorland, 19 Kms northeast of Taunton on February 7, 2014. (AFP Photo / Justin Tallis)

Belongings are seen, piled up in an outhouse which has been surrounded by flood water in Moorland, 19 Kms north-east of Taunton on February 7, 2014. (AFP Photo / Justin Tallis)

RT

 

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“White Christmas in UK a Maybe According to Met Office”

#AceWeatherNews says as at 20 December 2013 – Met Office forecasters are expecting the current unsettled weather to continue in the run up to Christmas, with spells of heavy rain and strong winds affecting the UK at times.

Weather UnsettledMuch of this weekend will be cool and showery before an area of low pressure develops over the Atlantic on Sunday, deepening rapidly to pass just to the north-west of the UK on Monday and into Tuesday. This is bringing very strong winds and heavy rain to much of the UK from Monday morning through to late Tuesday morning and Met Office National Severe Weather Warningshave been issued for wind and rain across the southwest and northern areas of the UK over the next few days.

The public should be aware of the potential for significant disruption to travel due to the very strong winds and also the risk of some flooding issues due to the heavy rain.

Weather High WindsDuring this period of unsettled weather, people are advised to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and National Severe Weather Warnings and find out what to do in severe weatherso they can plan ahead for the weather in store and make the most of the festive season.

Chief Forecaster Eddy Carroll said: “We can expect stormy weather in many areas to start the Christmas week, but looking forward to Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, we are expecting it to turn colder, with a mix of wintry showers and sunny spells but for wind speeds to drop. So there is a chance that some places may see a White Christmas“.

Throughout this unsettled spell Met Office forecasters and advisors are working round the clock with our partners to keep everyone up to date with the latest forecast information so they can plan and prepare for the expected weather.

An Environment Agency spokesperson said: “People who are set to be away from home for the festive period are urged to check the flood situation and take precautionary steps to prepare, for example by moving valuable items to safety, before travelling. People are also urged to check the flood risk situation for their journey and at their destination.

“People are also being urged not to drive through dangerous flood water. The Environment Agency has teams on the ground checking flood defences and monitoring river levels and will have teams ready to respond throughout the Christmas period.”

John McTaggart Head of On-Road Services at the Highways Agency said: “We are working closely with the Met Office to monitor conditions ahead of the weather being forecast for next week.

“Road users are urged to check traffic and weather conditions before setting out on journeys and to heed any advice such as speed restrictions once they are on motorways and major trunk roads.

“Be aware of sudden gusts of wind, and give high-sided vehicles, caravans, motorbikes and bicycles plenty of space. In the event of persistent high winds we may need to close certain bridges to traffic for a period, so please be alert for warnings of closures and follow signposted diversion routes.”

Don’t forget you can “Tell a Forecaster” the impacts the weather is having in your area, uploading photos and information via your mobile phone.

In this video Met Office Chief Forecaster, Eddy Carroll, explains how we expect the weather to develop over the next  few days, the potential for a stormy day on Monday and whether we’ll see a White Christmas.

Last updated: 20 December 2013

 

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Met Office: UK Getting Ready for Winter with Video

Winter

Winter (Photo credit: @Doug88888)

Following the success of last year’s campaign and with the recent severe weather fresh in the memory, the Government launch a timely reminder of the simple steps that can be taken to keep warm, healthy and safe this winter.

The Met Office will once again host the ‘Get Ready for Winter’ web pages on behalf of a range of Government Departments and voluntary organisations, offering advice and links to a range of organisations to help individuals, families and communities prepare for winter. The campaign will build on last year’s very successful initiative which saw thousands of people get the information they need to prepare for all-weather conditions through the winter months.

Francis Maude, Minister for the Cabinet Office, said: “Building on the success of last year’s ‘Get Ready for Winter’ initiative, government departments and our partners in the voluntary sector will again be providing comprehensive advice that will help individuals, families and communities prepare and stay safe this winter.

“From tips on preparing your property and vehicle, to the latest weather forecasts and warnings, the initiative will provide a one-stop shop for all winter weather related information”

The Met Office works closely with government departments, contingency planners and partner organisations including the voluntary sector, throughout the year to make sure they have the best advice available to help them prepare for and deal with the impacts that our weather can bring.

Severe weather

Severe weather (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Simon Lewis, head of emergency response at the British Red Cross and Chair of the Voluntary Sector Civil Protection Forum, said: “Severe weather will undoubtedly affect thousands of people across the UK this winter and we believe it is vital they have the necessary information to help them prepare. All the charities involved are delighted to offer simple hints and tips as well as free apps and resources to help people better prepare for the winter to come.”

The Scottish Government‘s ‘Ready Scotland’ campaign also aims to raise awareness of the risks that winter can bring and how people can be more prepared during severe weather.

So how can you be more prepared for severe weather?

  • Prepare your property and vehicle ahead of winter, and take responsibility for your own safety.
  • Be aware of the latest weather forecasts and warnings from the Met Office.
  • Be prepared to alter your plans in times of severe weather.
  • Look after the elderly and more vulnerable in your community.

Winter preparedness

  • Today sees the Get Ready for Winter campaign go live. Working with partners in the Cabinet Office, across Government and in the voluntary sector, these pages will offer a range of advice to help you prepare for winter and take action when severe weather is forecast.
  • This weekend the forecast is for severe weather, particularly in the South on Sunday night into Monday morning. Damaging winds are possible and the public are advised to keep up to date with the latest Met Office warnings and forecasts either via our website or our media partners.

Events

  • Bonfire night

    All those heading to fireworks displays on 5 November will be hoping for clear skies.

  • Tar barrels

    5 November – Check the Ottery St. Mary weather forecast if you are heading to tar barrels this bonfire night.

More events

I want to…

  • Community

    Help communities

    There are practical steps you can take to support your community in preparing for winter weather.

  • Health and wellbeing

    Stay warm and well

    Helping you keep warm and well this winter.

  • Protect your home

    Protect my home

    There are certain practical steps that you can take to protect your home from winter weather.

  • Travel

    Travel

    Preparations and precautions when travelling in winter.

  • Promotional material

    Promotional material

    Free downloadable promotional resources

Campaign partners

Get Ready for Winter is a partnership initiative joining up messages from Government, the voluntary sector, local authorities and others to encourage individuals, families and communities to think about winter preparations they can take to help them stay warm, healthy and safe. It aims to contribute to partners’ existing work through better co-ordination, sign posting and ease of access. This partnership approach through a single website not only makes messages more accessible for the public, but increases the reach for contributing organisations.

National Severe Weather Warnings

#aceweathernews, #british-red-cross, #cabinet-office, #francis-maude, #met-office, #ottery-st-mary, #scottish-government, #severe-weather, #sunday

St Jude Storm Update Video Across UK in Next 24 Hours

Major Atlantic storm to impact UK

27 October 2013 – A major Atlantic storm is set to move across the UK over the next 24 hours, bringing some heavy rain and very strong winds to parts of England and Wales.

Coastline battered by storm

The storm is set to deepen rapidly just to the south west of the UK late today, before moving into western areas in the very early hours of Monday morning.

It’s then expected to track rapidly across the country, moving off into the North Sea by late morning – by which time the strongest winds will have passed.

Gusts of 60-70mph are expected in southern parts of England and Wales, with gusts of 80mph or more in places – particularly around southern and south western coasts.

Heavy rain will accompany the storm, with a chance of some localised surface water flooding.

The Met Office has issued Severe Weather Warnings for potential disruption from both the strong winds and the rainfall.

Most likely tack Sunday issueMost likely tack Sunday issue Storm timesStorm times

Martin Young, Chief Forecaster at the Met Office, said: “While this is a major storm for the UK, we don’t currently expect winds to be as strong as those seen in the ‘Great Storm‘ of 1987 or the ‘Burns Day storm‘ of 1990.

“This weather system is typical of what we expect to see in winter but as it’s coming in during autumn – when trees are in leaf – and while the ground is fairly saturated, it does pose some risks. We could see some uprooted trees or other damage from the winds and there’s a chance of some surface water flooding from the rainfall – all of which could lead to some disruption.”

People are advised to take precautions ahead of the storm and that travel conditions may be difficult during tomorrow morning. Delaying journeys to avoid the worst of the winds should be considered.

The Met Office will continue to work with partners across the UK to help minimise disruption.

A spokesman for the  Environment Agency said: “Environment Agency teams are out working to minimise river flood risk, clearing debris from streams and unblocking culverts. We will continue to closely monitor the situation ready to issue flood warnings if needed. We are supporting local authorities who will respond to any reports of surface water flooding.”

“Seafronts, quaysides, jetties should be avoided due to the risk of overtopping by waves and wind blown shingle. People are advised to sign up to receive free flood warnings from the Environment Agency website, check weather reports on the Met Office website and be prepared to change travel plans.”

Contact information

Met Office Press Office: +44 (0)1392 886655

E-mail: Press Office

Met Office Customer Centre: 0870 900 0100

If you’re outside the UK: +44 1392 885680

 

#aceweathernews, #burns-day-storm, #england, #environment-agency, #flood, #great-storm-of-1987, #met-office, #north-sea, #the-met-office, #uk, #wales

Severe Storm Heading for the UK Worst Since 1987 According to Met Office

Severe storm heading for the UK – Video

26 October 2013 – The Met Office is a warning of the risk of a significant storm bringing exceptionally strong winds to parts of England and Wales on Sunday night into Monday morning.

Lighthouse and stormy seas

Currently forecasts suggest a low pressure system will rapidly deepen just to the south-west of the UK on later on Sunday, before moving across the country to be out over the North Sea by the afternoon on Monday.

This is expected to bring gusts of 60 – 80 mph widely across the southern half of the UK, with gusts of more than 80 mph possible in places – especially on exposed coasts.

Any major storm which occurs in early autumn has the potential to cause widespread severe disruption through falling trees, structural damage, transport disruption or power cuts and possibly flooding.

Frank Saunders, Chief Forecaster at the Met Office, said: “We are confident that a severe storm will affect Britain on Sunday night and Monday. We are now looking at refining the details about which areas will see the strongest winds and the heaviest rain.

“This is a developing situation and we’d advise people to stay up to date with our forecasts and warnings over the weekend, and be prepared to change their plans if necessary. We’ll continue to work closely with authorities and emergency services to ensure they are aware of the expected conditions.”

Alternative tracks - Monday 28 October 2013Alternative tracks – Monday 28 October 2013 Most likely track - Monday 28 October 2013Most likely track – Monday 28 October 2013

The storm is also expected to feature heavy rain for some parts of the country, which also has the potential to cause some localised impacts.

An Environment Agency spokesperson said: “Environment Agency teams are out working to minimise river flood risk, clearing debris from streams and unblocking culverts. We will continue to closely monitor the situation ready to issue flood warnings if needed. We are supporting local authorities who will respond to any reports of surface water flooding.”

“Seafronts, quaysides, jetties should be avoided due to the risk of over-topping by waves and wind-blown shingle. People are advised to sign up to receive free flood warnings from the Environment Agency website, check weather reports on the Met Office website and be prepared to change travel plans.”

Martin Hobbs the head of Asset Resilience at the Highways Agency: “We are working closely with the Met Office to monitor conditions ahead of the weather being forecast over the weekend.  Drivers, especially those considering a trip with a caravan this weekend, are encouraged to think carefully before setting off as driving conditions are expected to be difficult on Sunday evening and Monday. If you do have to make a journey by road, be prepared, plan your jour­ney in advance and check the lat­est weather conditions along your route.

“Be aware of sudden gusts of wind, and give high-sided vehicles, caravans, motorbikes and bicycles plenty of space. In the event of persistent high winds we may need to close certain bridges to traffic for a period, so please be alert for warnings of closures and follow sign-posted diversion routes.”

You can stay up to date with all the latest information in our forecasts and warnings online, on our apps for iPhone, Android, Windows, Kindle, as well as our partners on TV and Radio.

#aceweathernews, #england, #environment-agency, #flood-warnings, #frank-saunders, #highways-agency, #iphone, #met-office, #monday, #sunday, #the-met-office, #uk

Weather Alert Model – That could forecast water leaks more accurately – but who pays?

Met Office shows new water leakage model

17 October 2013 – The Met Office will show its new leakage model along with its other Weather Intelligence Models for demand, seasonal night use, pipe burst and turbidity data – at the UK Water Annual Leakage Conference, 24 October 2013.

Burst water pipe

The Met Office will show its new leakage model along with its other Weather Intelligence Models for demand, seasonal night use, pipe burst and turbidity data – at the UK Water Annual Leakage Conference, 24 October 2013.

Historically water leakage has been difficult for water companies to quantify or forecast accurately across water networks and resource zones, because of the large weather dependency. Understanding this weather dependency enables accurate modelling and reporting of the leakage.

Leakages account for up to 30% of the total annual distribution input across the water company’s network. The Met Office’s leakage prediction model assesses and predicts the influence of weather on leakage, which is known to particularly increase in periods of winter weather. The model allows for the close management of weather related leakage, on a week by week basis, enabling the water company to monitor and review its leakage strategy and expenditure on leakage reduction work can be set against levels of risk.

Thames Water

Thames Water (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The launch of the new Met Office weather intelligence models follows a successful collaboration with Thames Water to make the suite of models available across the whole water industry. The models, which have been developed to include the Met Office’s world leading weather data, can be adapted and calibrated to individual water company regions.

Michelle Spillar, Head of Utilities at the Met Office, says, “Our new modelling suite enables water companies to perform day by day network monitoring, forecast trends and analyse actual and predicted future events tailored to their specific network characteristics – offering multiple benefits and cost savings across water resources‘ strategy and operations.”

In addition to leakage the Met Office’s suite of weather intelligence models consists of:

Burst model

  • Increases in pipe burst occurrence during cold-weather winter periods cause large fluctuations in workload and resources required in call centre and repair teams.
  • Understanding and modelling weather related pipe bursts enables prediction of likely burst numbers on a 15 day time scale, allows for optimal resource deployment.
  • Integration of the burst model into contingency planning and emergency response, allows some of the worst impacts of winter weather to be modelled and quantified with mitigation activities planned.

Demand model

  • Summer water demand can vary by up to 10% according to the weather.
  • The Met Office’s demand model can be used for long-term strategic and short-term operational demand modelling, prediction and water resource management.
  • The model allows water companies to manage service reservoir storage levels optimally, providing efficiencies in energy use and security of supply during peak periods. Maintenance activities can be scheduled with increased confidence and assessment of the business benefits of implementing demand management measures, such as temporary use bans, can be undertaken accurately.

Seasonal night usage model

  • Night usage of water is known to increase in summer, in accordance with hot and dry weather conditions and other relevant factors.
  • Separating additional summer night use and leakage is challenging for water companies.
  • The seasonal night use model allows seasonal usage increases to be separated from leakage. Leakage trends across different resource zones over the summer can be monitored with the weather signal removed and leakage planners are able to use the seasonal night use model results to target detection resources effectively during the summer. Accurate assessments of true leakage early in the year, can benefit leakage targeting later in the year.

Turbidity model

  • The measurement of turbidity, the cloudiness or haziness of a fluid, is a key test of water quality.
  • Heavy rainfall causes increases in the levels of suspended particles in rivers, increasing the level of treatment needed.
  • The cost incurred in bringing the untreated water up to drinking water quality can increase the cost of production by up to five times.
  • The turbidity model enables the relationship between heavy rainfall and turbidity to be modelled, helping manage resources and minimise the impact of high turbidity events.

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COLD WEATHER PLAN LAUNCHED BY MET OFFICE

English: Cold weather front

English: Cold weather front (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dear Readers and Followers,

Better to be safe than sorry, so thought this would be useful information for you and your loved ones. So can you share and care to as many people as possible so they can be safe this Winter?

Thanks Ian  

The Met Office, Department of Health, and Health Protection Agency have launched the  Cold Weather plan for England 2012 which aims to prepare for, alert people to and prevent the major avoidable effects on health during periods of severe cold in England.

The Cold Weather Plan, which has run successfully since 2011, has been developed by the Department of HealthMet Office and Health Protection Agency, and supported by AgeUK. The purpose of the Cold Weather Plan is to help raise awareness of the dangers of cold weather on health with both the public and professionals alike. It spells out what preparations both individuals and organisations could make to reduce health risks and includes specific measures to protect at-risk groups.

The Cold Weather Plan will be supported again this year by the Met Office Cold Weather Alert Service, which notifies frontline staff across the health, social care, Community and Voluntary sectors, and AgeUK, as well as the general public across England, when cold weather could impact on people’s’ health.

Although winter weather and snow can be fun, they are also associated with an increase in illnesses and injuries. Severe cold weather can be particularly dangerous for vulnerable groups such as older people and those with serious illnesses.

Met Office figures show that the winter of 2010/11 saw the coldest December in 100 years. Some areas saw temperatures fall as low as -10 and -20 °C overnight. Winter 2011/12 was milder but there were several cold snaps, notably at the start of February 2012.

The Met Office Cold Weather Alert Service runs from 1 November 2012 to 31 March 2013 and has five alert levels that depend on the severity of conditions. Together, the plan and alerts aim to prepare, alert and prevent the effects of winter weather on people’s health by helping keep people well.

Further details of how to prepare and reduce the effects of extreme weather conditions on your health can be found on THEIR website LINK BELOW!

Cold Weather Plan Launched Today just click link and a new page will open and take you to the sight information.

Link to information above: You can sign up as l have done for email alerts to your area of the UK at MET OFFICE ALERTS  

Be safe and sound this winter.

Regards, Editor {Ace News Group}

#department-of-health, #england, #health-protection-agency, #london, #met-office, #scotland, #snow, #weather