(GENEVA) Atlantic Council Report: Will this week’s three sets of negotiations between Russia and the US, NATO and OSCE relieve, defer, or exacerbate tensions over Putin’s saber-rattling near Ukraine and what the U.S regards as Moscow’s unacceptable security demands? #AceNewsDesk report

#AceNewsReport – Jan.12: Current Western responses are clear. First, diplomacy is the preferred US and NATO means to reconcile and defuse this crisis. Second, further Russian aggression against Ukraine is to be deterred by threats of sanctions and other punitive retaliatory actions. Third, US counter-proposals include limiting missile deployments and military exercises as a confidence-building measure. Lastly, Moscow has been well informed of the painful consequences should negotiations fail.

#AceDailyNews says according to Atlantic Council News Report: The US and NATO must attack Vladimir Putin’s intimidation strategy

The US and NATO must attack Vladimir Putin’s intimidation strategy
Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin attends an extraordinary meeting of the Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on the situation in Kazakhstan. January 10, 2022. (Sputnik/Aleksey Nikolskyi/Kremlin via REUTERS)

The American approach to this foreign policy crisis is understandable, predictable, and conventional. Given the many simultaneous pressures on the White House, which currently range from the Covid pandemic and inflation to the obstacles preventing passage of the Voting Rights and Build Back Better bills, the amount of time to reflect on and create a strategic plan for Ukraine has been understandably limited. Could a less conventional approach prove more effective when dealing with Putin, especially as China looks on?

As the principal author of the “shock and awe” doctrine, I have often been distressed by how badly this concept has been misunderstood, distorted, and misapplied. The aim of “shock and awe” was to win by not fighting or to win with minimal use of military force by affecting, influencing, and even controlling the will and perception of the adversary. 

Could this help us deal with Putin? The answer is decidedly yes. The objective should be to turn intimidation against Putin by attacking his strategy of intimidation. 

UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

Putin is employing a textbook case of intimidation. This playbook includes threatening rhetoric, the use of military force to signal intent, unacceptable demands, misinformation, disinformation, influence operations, and the weaponization of energy supplies.

Putin also clearly believes he is in a strong position as he has the initiative while the West reacts. It is reasonable to assume he will exploit any differences and gaps in the three current tracks of negotiations.

One of Putin’s most important aims is to prevent NATO’s expansion eastward and, in the process, divide and neuter the alliance. Instead of constraining NATO, suppose Putin’s actions in and around Ukraine, and possibly Kazakhstan, have the opposite effect of provoking NATO expansion? 

This is worth exploring further. What other option would NATO have except to consider expanding membership and increasing the alliance’s military power on its eastern flank, should the current round of negotiations founder? Intimidation cuts several ways. 


The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Congressional Fellowship Program aims to educate Congressional staff on current events in the Eurasia region and engage staff with the Council’s latest research. The program connects Congressional fellows with our larger community, which includes leading experts on Ukraine, Russia, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus.

Applications are open! For questions about the program, please contact Shelby Magid.

In light of the current crisis, Finland and Sweden have recently expressed greater interest in NATO membership. At the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest, as a sop to Georgia and Ukraine for not being granted Membership Action Plans, US President George W. Bush almost casually offered the promise of future alliance membership to both countries. At the time, Putin was said to be furious. This led to Russia’s occupation of Georgia’s South Ossetia later that year.

Reaffirming the NATO commitment to Georgia and Ukraine as well as inferring that discussions with Finland and Sweden might be forthcoming is precisely the outcome Putin is currently trying to prevent.

And to make its point clearer, NATO must apply the 1997 NATO-Ukraine Charter that called for consultations “whenever Ukraine perceives a direct threat to its territorial integrity, political independence or security.”

Concurrently, an information campaign is important in order to show how costly an assault into Ukraine would be for Russia. The obvious and painful reference is to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which began at the end of 1979. Ukraine was also the site of some of the Second World War’s bloodiest fighting. The number of Ukrainians willing to defend their country today far exceeds the number of Afghan fighters who defeated the Soviets.

Estimates of potential Russian dead and wounded from a fresh invasion of Ukraine should be publicized. Thirty thousand or more casualties are likely. Plans for a Porcupine Defense (advocated in detail in my latest book) should be reinforced by reports of Stinger and Javelin anti-air and anti-armor missiles as well as Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) en route to Ukraine.

The off-ramp from the current confrontation for Putin would be a framework that makes Europe safer, more secure, and stable. This is something which both sides could claim credit for.

Of course, a counter-intimidation strategy could fail and escalate the danger. But this is not Munich in 1938. In virtually every category of military power, NATO’s thirty members are collectively superior to Russia.

It is time to take the fight to Putin. Make him succumb to a reverse shock and awe. The bet is he will.

Dr. Harlan Ullman is Senior Advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of “shock and awe.” His latest book is The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Jan 9, 2022How to make a Russian invasion of Ukraine prohibitively expensiveBy Andriy ZagorodnyukBolstering Ukraine’s ability to wage an effective asymmetric campaign on home soil may be the most effective way to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

UkraineAlert Dec 3, 2021Europe’s future will be decided in UkraineBy Oleksii ReznikovThe international community must urgently demonstrate its resolve to punish Russia in order to deter a full-scale invasion of Ukraine that would plunge Europe into chaos, warns Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.

UkraineAlert Dec 11, 2021Memo to the international media: Putin has already invaded UkraineBy Peter DickinsonOne depressing aspect of Russia’s latest military build-up on the Ukrainian border has been the flurry of headlines posing the same question: will Putin invade Ukraine?

In reality, Russia has already invaded Ukraine and the war is now in its eighth year.

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.EXPLORE THE PROGRAM

#AceNewsDesk report ……….Published: Jan.12: 2022:

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#russia, #geneva, #moscow, #nato, #osce, #ukraine, #us


#AceNewsServices – UKRAINE – October 31 – Investigators have recovered the remains of an unspecified number of people from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which was shot down over eastern Ukraine on July 17, the Dutch prime minister said.

Speaking during a weekly press conference in the Hague, PM Mark Rutte said a team of Dutch, Ukrainian and OSCE rescue workers were granted rare access to the site where the plane’s wreckage remains scattered, AP reports.

Access to the site had previously been limited due to fighting in the area.

All 298 passengers and crew were killed when the plane was shot down in the reason, most of them Dutch.

Rutt said the remains would be flown back to the Netherlands and identified.

In July, the first of bodies recovered from the crashed site were flown the the Netherlands for identification.



#aceworldnews, #hague, #osce, #ukraine

DONETSK: ‘ Swiss Red Cross Worker Killed When Humanitarian HQ Shelled ‘

#AceNewsServices – UKRAINE (Donetsk) – October 02 – A Swiss Red Cross worker was killed in Donetsk as the office of the humanitarian organization was shelled, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

The ICRC has confirmed on its Twitter account that its office in Donetsk has been shelled and a humanitarian worker died in the attack.

ICRC spokesman Ewan Watson confirmed that the worker was a Swiss national.

“One of our colleagues, a Swiss national, was killed in Donetsk, Ukraine, when a shell hit close to our office. We’re deeply distressed by this loss,” Watson told Reuters.

A Red Cross representative, Laurent Etienne, a citizen of Switzerland, born 1976, has been killed,”Eduard Basurin, head of the political department of the Defence Ministry of the Donetsk People’s Republic, told TASS news agency.

image from http://ispomodnr.ru/warcor/grazhdsh.html

image from http://ispomodnr.ru/warcor/grazhdsh.html

Etienne was deputy head of the Red Cross mission in Donetsk, according to an Interfax correspondent.

 The death of the humanitarian worker is very concerning, a spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine told RIA Novosti.

He expressed condolences, adding that the OSCE will investigate the incident and prepare a report by Friday.

Several blasts were heard in the center of Donetsk as it was heavily shelled, RT Arabic correspondent Anna Knishenko reported from the eastern Ukrainian city.

RT English correspondent Maria Finoshina also reported that a residential area was shelled and that among the hit areas were dormitories for displaced people from Eastern Ukraine and returned POWs.

The City Council confirmed the shelling on its website, adding that emergency services were deployed to the site.

“We can confirm that a mortar hit a nine-storey block of flats in Universitetskaya Street,” the self-proclaimed republic’s press service told TASS news agency, adding that casualties had been reported.

According to a RIA Novosti correspondent, the shelling was carried out by the self-propelled multiple rocket launcher system BM-27 Uragan. Witnesses said that a hospital and a shopping center were hit by mortar fire.

Public transport operations have been suspended for an uncertain period of time, the City Council statement said.

Earlier on Thursday, fierce fighting was ongoing in and around Donetsk airport, while plumes of black smoke were rising from the area of the building.

 On Wednesday, three people died at a school on the first day of classes in the country. Six others were killed at a bus stop as Donetsk came under fire – reportedly from Ukrainian army positions.

Thirty more people were injured in the attacks, which were described by the Russian Foreign Ministry as “blatant and intolerable.”

READ MORE:9 killed, 30 injured in shelling in Donetsk, E. Ukraine, school hit

The attacks come despite a ceasefire agreement between Kiev authorities and eastern militia forces, which was signed on September 5 in Minsk.


#donetsk, #donetsk-peoples-republic, #icrc, #international-committee-of-the-red-crossicrc, #organisation-for-security-and-co-operation-in-europe-osce, #osce, #swiss, #ukraine, #ukrainian

‘ Civilians Buried in Ground Show Missing Organs ‘

#AceNewsServices – UKRAINE(Donetsk)- September 27 – On the outskirts of Donetsk, miners discovered new mass graves of brutally murdered civilians.   

' Victims found in mass graves in Ukraine lack internal organs '

‘ Victims found in mass graves in Ukraine lack internal organs ‘

Representatives of the People’s Republic of Donetsk believe that the civilians were killed by National Guard soldiers, as the Ukrainian troops had been staying in the settlement, where the graves were found, since April, whereas Donetsk militia occupied the village only on September 21, RIA Novosti reports.

However, Kiev officials deny the information. Earlier, a representative of the Council of National Security and Defense of Ukraine, Andrey Lysenko, said that “no soldier of the National Guard was ever staying in the location.” 

Prime Minister of the People’s Republic of Donetsk Alexander Zakharchenko told the Russian News Service that there were three burials of civilians found – about 40 dead bodies of civilians, prisoners of war and Ukrainian militia soldiers.

According to Zakharchenko, an examination of the bodies showed that the victims lacked internal organs. However, he noted, it remains unclear whether the organs had been harvested at the time when the victims were alive or dead. 

OSCE observers confirmed reports about the discovery of three mass graves in the Donetsk region, in the village of Nizhnyaya Krynka and its surroundings on September 23.

Chairman of Just Russia Party, head of the party faction in the State Duma of the Russian Federation, Sergei Mironov, commenting on the reports, said that the Duma suggested establishing an international commission to investigate crimes against humanity and war crimes against civilians in Ukraine.


#donetsk, #kiev, #national-guard, #national-security-and-defense-of-ukraine, #osce, #peoples-republic-of-donestsk, #russian-news-service, #ukraine

‘ OSCE No Proof of Russian Servicemen in Ukraine ‘

#AceWorldNews – UKRAINE – September 26 – Observers of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have no serious proof of “Russian servicemen” in Ukraine, Russian permanent representative to the OSCE Andrey Kelin said Friday. 

' OSCE No Proof of Russian Servicemen '

‘ OSCE No Proof of Russian Servicemen ‘

No serious proof was found. OSCE observers tell the Western press that there is no proof of the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine,” ITAR-TASS quoted him as saying during the ‘Moscow-Vienna’ video conference.

He added Russia is ready to discuss possible issues in this aspect at corresponding forums. 


#russia, #moscow-vienna, #organisation-for-security-and-cooperation-in-europe-osce, #osce, #russian, #ukraine

OSCE: ‘ Moscow Receives Proposal for Russian and Ukrainian Border Monitoring ‘

#AceWorldNews – OSCE – July 27  – OSCE Receives Moscow‘s Proposal for joint Russian and Ukrainian border monitoring and is mulling it over and the implications therewith:

RIA NovostiOSCE Receives Moscow’s Proposal for Russian-Ukrainian Border MonitoringOSCE Receives Moscow’s Proposal for Russian-Ukrainian Border Monitoring

21:05 14/07/2014 The Swiss chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) confirmed Monday the organization had received Moscow’s proposal to deploy OSCE monitors at Russian crossing points on the border with Ukraine.>>


#russia, #cooperation, #europe, #july, #moscow, #organization-for-security-and-co-operation-in-europe, #osce, #ukraine

` German Military Observers Detained in Sloviansk by Kidnappers as have Connections to Federal Intelligence Services ‘

#AceWorldNews – BERLIN – May 05 – German military observers that had been detained in Sloviansk had “certain connections” with the Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst, or BND), Suddeutsche Zeitung newspaper reported on Monday.

According to the report, the German inspectors were not staff of the BND or Military Counter-Intelligence Service (Militaerischer Abschirmdienst, or MAD).

The four observers are employed by the Bundeswehr Verification Center in Geilenkirchen (North Rhine-Westphalia).

The centre is tasked with monitoring the compliance with agreements on arms control signed by Germany with other states, including within the framework of the OSCE.


#berlin, #german, #germany, #organisation-for-security-and-co-operation-in-europe-osce, #osce

#AceWorldNews UKRAINE April 26 According to an UNIAN…

#AceWorldNews – UKRAINE – April 26 – According to an UNIAN correspondent, director of Information Policy Department of the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine Yevgeniy Perebiynis said this at press conference.

“We have just received information that connection with members of military verification mission of the OSCE, which stays in Ukraine in accordance with Vienna document, was lost”, – said Perebiynis.

According to his words, in accordance with preliminary information, they might be seized by terrorists, and this information is being checked now.

“If this information is confirmed it will mean an outrageous crime from the side of terrorists against principles of the OSCE and it will not be left without an adequate reaction from the side of Ukraine and international community”, – said Perebiynis.



#organisation-for-security-and-co-operation-in-europe-osce, #osce, #ukraine, #vienna

` Kiev Loses Contact with `OSCE Mission ‘ Working in Eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Region ‘

#AceWorldNews – KIEV – April 25 – Kiev says it has lost contact with the OSCE mission working in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, RIA Novosti reports.

“We have received information that in the Donetsk region the contact has been lost with the members of the military OSCE mission, which is now in Ukraine in accordance with the Vienna document,” Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Evgeny Perebiynis was quoted as saying.

According to the ministry, the German-led group of OSCE observers has been working in south-east Ukraine since April 21.


#donetsk, #kiev, #organisation-for-security-and-co-operation-in-europe-osce, #osce, #ukraines, #ukrainian

` German FM Frank Steinmeier Has Called on the West to focus on Preventing Further Escalation in Ukraine ‘

#AceNewsServices – UKRAINE – April 20 – German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has called on the West to focus on preventing “further escalation” in Ukraine rather than on sanctions to target Russia, according to Germany’s Bild am Sonntag newspaper, which is expected to publish the full interview on Sunday.

“I sometimes wish that the same engagement being used for the debate about sanctions would also exist when it comes to avoiding a further escalation,” Steinmeier told the newspaper. “We have already exhaustively discussed the sanctions issue.”

He also stressed that Germany supports the agreement reached in Geneva on the de-escalation of the conflict and vowed support to the OSCE mission in Ukraine.

“It was clear that peace in Ukraine would not be immediately restored after the agreement in Geneva. Now the most important is that the agreed measures are implemented,” he said.

Ace Related News:
1. Interview with German Foreign Minister Steinmeier: Interview Conducted by Christiane Hoffmann and Ralf Neukirch http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/frank-walter-steinmeier-interview-about-new-german-foreign-policy-a-955286.html


#russia, #germany, #organisation-for-security-and-co-operation-in-europe-osce, #osce, #ukraine

` Parliament of `Transdniestr ' urges Russia to recognise the Independence of Moldova's Region Ekho '

#AceWorldNews – MOLDOVA – April 16 – The parliament of Transdniestr has urged Russia to recognize the independence of Moldova’s breakaway region, Ekho of Moscow radio said Wednesday.

A delegation of the republic’s MPs is expected to meet with Sergey Naryshkin, the chairman of the Russian lower house of parliament, the State Duma, in Moscow on Thursday.

The lawmakers also asked the UN and the OSCE to recognize the region’s independence, citing the results of a September 2006 referendum in favour of it.


#moldova, #moscow, #osce, #russia-3, #russian, #state-duma, #transdniestr, #un

` Switzerland is not planning to repeat the `Sanctions’ on the `Russian Federation ‘ by the US or EU ‘

#AceWorldNews – Geneva – March 18, 22:35 – Switzerland is not planning to automatically repeat the sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States against Russia, Swiss Confederation President Didier Burkhalter said in an interview with the Neue Zurcher Zeitung.

“We will take a time-out and will not act exactly the same way as the ‘X’ or the ‘Y’ alliance has acted. Switzerland is neither the EU nor the United States,” the president said, adding that Bern intended to “act impartially and maintain trust in a long-term prospect”.

Didier Burkhalter said Switzerland must be “doubly unbiased” as this year Switzerland held the presidency of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

“Switzerland has good relations with China, the US, Russia and the EU,” he said, adding that Switzerland could be useful “as a mediator in such situations”.

After the 2008 South Ossetia war, Switzerland has been representing Russia’s interests in Georgia and Georgia’s interests in Russia.

Russian News and Media Sources


#eu, #european-union, #geneva, #georgia, #osce, #ossetia, #russia-3, #swiss-confederation-president-didier-burkhalter, #switzerland, #united-states, #us

` Attempted Radio-Electronic attack on ` Russian Television Satellites from ' Western Ukraine ' has been Recorded '

#AceWorldNews An attempted radio-electronic attack on Russian television satellites from the territory of Western Ukraine has been recorded by the Ministry of Communications.

It comes days after Ukraine blocked Russian TV channels, a move criticized by the OSCE.

The ministry noted that “people who make such decisions” to attack Russian satellites that retransmit TV signals, “should think about the consequences,” Ria Novosti reports.

The ministry did not share any details of the attack.


#osce, #ria-novosti, #russian, #russian-tv-channels, #ukraine

` Seven countries out of the `G8 ‘ have unnamiously condemned `Russia’s position on the Ukraine ‘ – Joint Statement.

#AceWorldNews says that Seven countries “Group of Eight” in a joint statement condemned Russia’s position on Ukraine and announced that it was suspending participation in the preparations for the summit in Sochi.

“We note that the actions of Russia in Ukraine contrary to the principles and values ​​on which the function G7 and G8.

Therefore, we decided to stop at the time of participation in activities to prepare for the summit scheduled for June in Sochi, until situation does not allow the “eight” to conduct meaningful discussions, “- said in a statement released by the White House on Monday.

The statement was signed by the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and USA, as well as the European Council and the European Commission.

Russia’s G8 partners also urged Moscow to solve the concerns of its security and human rights associated with what is happening in Ukraine, by direct negotiation in the presence of international observers or through the UN and the OSCE.

Authors of the statement stressed that Russia ready to help in these efforts.

In addition, the statement called on all parties to the conflict Ukrainian “behave very responsibly and with restraint and reduce tensions.”

It says ready to support Kiev in restoring unity, stability, political and economic well-being, as well as in the negotiations with the IMF.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that Russia and all risks losing in G8, if not change its position on the Crimea.

“Russia may lose summit” Group of Eight “in Sochi. If the situation does not change, it is possible that even this country is excluded from the G8”, – he said in an interview with U.S. television channel NBC .

Kerry promised that the Russian authorities could face “the freezing of assets of Russian entrepreneurs, leaving American business from the Russian market.”

He also warned of the possibility of a further fall in the ruble. ”

“We’ll have to pay a huge price.
This is not a position of strength. If Russia wants to be a country of G8, it should behave as such – said the Secretary of State. – G8 plus some other countries – all of them are fully prepared expose Russia insulation for this intrusion, “- said U.S. Secretary of State.

Moscow. March 3. INTERFAX.RU


#crimea, #g8, #imf, #interfax, #kiev, #moscow, #osce, #russian, #sochi, #un, #us-secretary-of-state-john-kerry